In the Wall Street Journal this morning, Peter Nicholas and Danny Yadron exposed Obama’s worrisome burn rate – Obama is spending money far faster than he’s raising it. In June, Obama spent twice as much as Romney and it was the second month in a row that the campaign dipped into the red. On top of this, the Obama campaign has been significantly outraised. Romney took in $107 million last month to Obama’s $71 million.
The Obama campaign has been spending incredible amounts and at record speed. With four crucial months left until election day, Obama cannot afford to keep this up. August will undoubtedly be a difficult month to raise money for Obama. And fundraising will distract Obama from campaigning in September and October, yet another challenge to a challenged reelection campaign.
Romney is inching ahead of Obama. He’s ahead on the economy. And he’s ahead in the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll. But even more important than his lead on the economy or in the polls is the lead in his war chest.
Romney is raising more money and has even been holding back on his expenditures. He’s doing this both because of the campaign and also because he’s not officially the nominee. After the GOP conference in Tampa, Romney’s campaign will shift into a whole new phase and Obama will not be able to keep up.
Given Super PAC money, it is likely that Romney will outspend Obama between 2 to 4 to 1 on TV ads. This is particularly worrisome for Obama given that the swing states that are in play are tied. Romney’s TV spending, coupled with the fact that Obama’s job approval is at 46 or 47% and his vote total at 47%, could prove a decisive and dispositive benefit for his campaign. You would assume that 2/3 of undecideds will break for Romney on election day.
The race is moving to Romney’s advantage. Even though it is close and the electoral college estimates from Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver show Obama with a lead, the swing state polls from last week are very close and if Romney wins the election by 2 points or more he will sweep the swing states. Given his substantial financial advantage, it’s clear that things are moving his way. And the fact that the market continues to drop, that Iraq is blowing up and that there is a sense of drift in the country only adds to Romney’s chances.
Of course, something could go drastically wrong for the Romney campaign – unexpected twists do happen. But as thing stands, Romney is even further ahead of Obama than people think.
The Obama campaign as professionals will understand this. The story the press has missed is that the month of June, which was supposed to be a cruel month for Obama has turned out to be exactly that. With Romney coming out slightly ahead and with his current cash position, the Romney campaign is much stronger than people realize.
