There’s been a lineup change in the race for the GOP nomination, as businessman Donald Trump moves up after declaring his candidacy. He’s now second in the order after former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who also got an uptick in support after his formal announcement.
For Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is still — by far — the team leader, according to a new Fox News national poll on the 2016 presidential election.
Bush tops the list of GOP contenders with 15 percent support among Republican primary voters. ; That’s up from 12 percent last month and his best showing yet. ; Support for Trump more than doubled since his announcement and that catapults him into the top tier at 11 percent. He’s followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 percent. ; No one else receives double-digit backing. ;
Bush officially kicked off his campaign June 15 and Trump launched June 16. It’s common for candidates to see a bump in their numbers in the days following their formal announcement and the media coverage that comes with that. ;
The bad news for Trump is that only 29 percent of GOP primary voters consider him a serious candidate. ; More than twice that many — 64 percent — think he’s a side show. ; Among all registered voters, nearly 8 in 10 say Trump is a side show (77 percent). ;
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has not announced whether he will run, comes in at nine percent. ; That’s down from 12 percent a month ago and the first time Walker has been in single digits since January.
The poll finds support for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (9 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (8 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (6 percent) holding steady among GOP primary voters.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz receives 4 percent, and businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum get 3 percent apiece.
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who announced his candidacy June 24, gets 2 percent.
Clinton remains in command on the Democratic side, with 61 percent of Democratic primary voters backing her compared to 15 percent supporting Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. ; Another 11 percent go for Vice President Joe Biden and three percent for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — both of whom are undeclared. ;
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley garners one percent and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee gets less than one percent support. ; Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who has announced an exploratory committee but is still undeclared, gets two percent. ;
(Note to political junkies: ; Previous Fox News polls included Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren as an option, so compare these results to the previous results at your peril.)
Part of Clinton’s appeal among Democratic primary voters is that 81 percent believe she really would be a fighter for the middle class. ; Overall, 44 percent of voters think she would fight for the middle class, while a 51-percent majority sees that as just a campaign slogan. ;
Honest and Trustworthy
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have in common? ; (No, not hair spray.) ; Majorities don’t trust them. ;
More than twice as many say Trump is not honest and trustworthy as think he is (64 percent vs. 30 percent). That gives him an honesty score of negative 34. ;
Clinton’s honesty score is negative seven. ; Less than half of voters — 45 percent — rate her as honest. ; That’s unchanged from earlier this year, but down from a record 54 percent who said she was honest in 2014. ; A 52-percent majority says Clinton is not honest. ;
Bush’s honesty score is negative two (45 percent honest vs. 47 percent not). ; In April it was 46 percent honest vs. 42 percent not.
Fully 79 percent of Democrats think Clinton is honest, while just 63 percent of Republicans say the same of Bush. ;
Rubio’s honesty score is a positive four, although nearly a third of voters are unable to rate him. ; Over half of Republicans, 57 percent, think Rubio is honest. ;
Clinton tops each of the GOP candidates tested in 2016 presidential match-ups — except Bush. ;
The two dynasty candidates tie with 43 percent apiece. ; Bush had a one-point edge in May and also tied Clinton in March. ;
Clinton bests Rubio by just one point, Paul by four, Carson by five and Cruz, Fiorina and Walker by six points each. ; In each of these match-ups the results are within the margin of sampling error. ;
Despite Trump’s recent jump into the top tier in the GOP nomination preference, Clinton fares best against him — winning by 17 points.
Clinton’s edge over Fiorina (45-39) is just half the 12-point edge she had in May (49-37). ; Among women, Clinton led by 23-points in May. ; That’s down to a 14-point advantage today.
Despite Clinton’s current advantage in almost all of the potential match-ups, most Republicans like their odds of winning in 2016 if she’s the Democratic nominee: ; 22 percent think they have an “excellent” chance and another 58 percent say a “good” chance.
Many Democrats see Clinton as vulnerable as well. ; Just under half, 46 percent, think the GOP has a chance of defeating her (49 percent disagree).
By a 67-28 percent margin, independents think Republicans have at least a good chance of winning in 2016 if Clinton is their opponent. ;
Three GOP candidates have never held public office (Carson, Fiorina and Trump). So what experience do you need before going to the White House? ; Overall, voters give roughly equal weight to a president having a business background (48 percent “very” important) as they do to having previously held elected office (49 percent “very” important).
Partisans prioritize in the opposite direction. A 55-percent majority of Democrats says having experience in public office is “very” important, while a 58-percent majority of Republicans feels that way about having a proven track record of working in business.
Most voters think Hillary Clinton is her own person. ; By a wide 72-21 percent margin, voters say if Clinton wins the White House they would see it as her first term rather than another term for her husband, former President Bill Clinton. ; In addition, a 54-percent majority would see her win as a fresh start and not a continuation of Obama’s policies (38 percent). ;
Majorities of Democrats and Republicans agree that a Clinton win would be her first term instead of a third term for Bill. ; But most Republicans think it would be a continuation of Obama’s administration, while most Democrats say it would be a fresh start. ;
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,005 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from June 21-23, 2015. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error is higher among the subgroups of Democratic and Republican primary voters (+/-5%).