Photo credit: Real Clear Politics
It all comes down to the Electoral College map.
With President Obama now leading Mitt Romney 253-170 in the Real Clear Politics Electoral Map, it appears that the 2012 presidential race is Obama’s to win — notwithstanding the fact that two candidates are currently neck-and-neck among the electorate overall, and in key battleground swing states.
To be sure, the latest swing state polling show President Obama virtually tied with Mitt Romney – who has significantly improved his standing among swing state voters since becoming the presumptive Republican nominees.
On Monday, USA Today/Gallup released a poll of voters in 12 battleground states ( Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin) – the first USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll since the March survey which found Obama leading by nine percentage points among swing-state voters.
The latest USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll shows the President and Romney virtually tied (47%-45%) – with the President’s two point lead over Mr. Romney falling within the margin of error.
Similarly, last week’s Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll found the two candidates in a statistical tie in key toss-up states Ohio and Florida — with Romney leading 44 percent to 43 percent in Florida and Obama leading 44 percent-42 percent in Ohio.
But all one needs to do is look at the Electoral Map to see that the President is a mere 18 electoral votes shy of the 271 needed to win.
Put simply, all President Obama needs to do is win either Ohio (18 Electoral College votes) or Florida(29 Electoral College votes) – or a combination of two or more states including Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4) Iowa (6) Missouri (10) Colorado (9) North Carolina (15) or Arizona (11).
Bottom line: no matter how you do the math, President Obama’s path to electoral victory seems clear.
