With the latest RCP Tracking Average (2/1-2/19) showing Obama with a 5.7 point lead over Mitt Romney and a 7.5 point lead over Rick Santorum, it is clear that the biggest threat to President Obama’s chances of winning reelection will not come from any of the four candidates vying for the GOP nomination.
Indeed, the Republican Party has been divided by a protracted primary season to which there is no end in sight.
Rick Santorum has taken the lead – propelled by the support of conservatives, evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporter. His ascendance is evidenced clearly in today’s Gallup’s daily tracking poll, which shows Santorum leading Romney 36% to 26% among Republicans nationwide.
Mitt Romney, meanwhile, is sinking. He has only garnered 50% of the vote in one state primary thus far.
Even if he resuscitates himself – which is certainly possibly – it is still unlikely that he will be able to get the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination going into the Convention.
Romney could of course try to make a deal with Santorum – which would help him with social conservatives and in Pennsylvania and in the Midwest – or he could make a deal with Ron Paul and name Rand Paul as his running mate.
But naming Santorum as his running mate would look phony – given the extent to which he has been attacking the former Senator — and he would risk losing supporters who view Santorum as being too extreme.
A Romney-Paul ticket would also look a bit ridiculous. Their foreign policies are completely divergent for instance, and unlike Paul, Romney does not want to abolish the Fed.
Meanwhile, President Obama’s job approval rating has climbed to 48.6% in Real Clear Politics’ Tracking Average – having reached 50% in the most recent polling by CNN, Democracy Corps, and CBS News/New York Times.
The President does however remain vulnerable on one issue, which if left unchecked, could undo much of the goodwill the President has enjoyed in recent weeks – thanks to January job growth which exceeded expectations, a surging stock market and a payroll tax deal which have boosted public confidence in his handling of the economy
This issue is oil and gas prices –which rose today after Iran cut exports to Britain and France, and are expected to climb further, possibly to $4/ gallon or higher.
The Republicans have already jumped at the chance to use the developing crisis to their political advantage.
As the New York Times reported on Friday:
“…talking points from the Republican National Committee that go out to conservative commentators every Friday often include rising gas prices among the “Top Line Messaging” for the week. A recent “Pundit Prep” document cited the national debt, unemployment and the price of gas as the three best ways to define the ‘Obama economy.’”
And on the campaign trail, Rick Santorum pointed to Obama’s disapproval of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline in the United States and mismanagement of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East as being responsible for a “tension” reflected in rising prices.
If oil prices continue to rise as predicted, what Robert Gibbs referred to as the Administration’s “all-of-the-above energy policy may turn out to be President Obama’s Achilles Heel come November.
