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• It’s a bling thing: Trump and Hillary two of a kind
• Hillary courts union bosses, but base loves Bernie
• Walker raids Jeb’s home turf
• Take Five: Keystone State rock solid
• So, about situational ethics, honey…
IT’S A BLING THING: TRUMP AND HILLARY TWO OF A KIND
They’re both mega-rich New Yorkers with famous hairdos and big baggage, but Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have much more in common than that. They are both clear frontrunners for the political parties’ presidential nominations who are in the dumps with the general electorate.
A new national poll from Quinnipiac University says that Clinton’s lead among Democrats is smaller than in the spring, but she still trounces her closest competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., by a stout 38 points. Her biggest worry for the primary run is the sudden bump in backing for Vice President Joe Biden, who is weighing a late-summer launch.
But compared to Trump’s perilous perch, Clinton is as solid as the octopus carpaccio at the 21 Club.
The Republican frontrunner continues to gobble up vote share from every candidate other than establishment fave Jeb Bush, who held steady from May with 10 percent, and Scott Walker, who actually managed to gain 3 points amid the Trumptation of the GOP to 13 percent and second place. The only other significant gain was Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who muscled his way into the pack at 5 percent.
And a closer look at Trump’s support tells us why his 7 point lead is so flimsy. While he is tops among self-described “very conservative” respondents, he is also number one with self-described “somewhat conservative” voters as well as moderates and liberals.
The good news for Trump is that he draws support from multiple channels, as opposed to a candidate like Walker who lags with liberals and moderates. Trump even draws responses from potential voters who otherwise wouldn’t take part in a GOP primary poll.
Quinnipiac doesn’t say if the ideological proportions shifted post-Trump, so we don’t know how much his arrival has changed the composition of the electorate The favorites among moderates and liberals prior to Trump’s name being added to the list were Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, who are now specks in the rearview mirror of Trump’s limo. So, some of Trump’s support among the middling-minded is no doubt at the expense of others.
But – and this is just a guess – Trump’s fame and bombast is bringing in people who normally wouldn’t vote in a Republican primary or identify themselves as primary voters to a telephone pollster. And history tells us that such voters are an unreliable bet come Election Day.
Clinton’s primary support, by comparison, is anything but unsettled. It’s downright stodgy. Democrats are coming to terms with Clinton, and she shows no signs of bringing new voters into the process. That’s bad in many ways, but good for predictable primary polling.
But those same polls tell us something very dangerous for Clinton: voters neither like nor trust her. And that’s where she and Trump go together like Cristal and a Hamptons clambake. She is seen by voters as neither honest nor trustworthy by 57 percent of voters while Trump cards an equally abysmal 56 percent.
By way of further comparison, Clinton trails Biden on honesty and trustworthiness among all voters by 21 points and by 11 points among Democrats. Woof.
Clinton’s unfavorability rating is only 8 points better than Trump’s 59 percent, but she does have stronger core support, which explains why the poll shows her beating him badly – 12 points – in a hypothetical general election matchup.
But, for the aforementioned reasons, Trump isn’t going to the big dance. So how does Clinton do against the contenders? She’s essentially tied with both Bush and Walker. That’s a particularly bad sign as it relates to Walker, given how much better known she is than the Wisconsin governor.
And here’s the kicker for Clinton: Biden does as well against Walker and Bush as Clinton. When Sheriff Joe sees those numbers, he might decide to saddle up after all.
HILLARY COURTS UNION BOSSES, BUT BASE LOVES BERNIE
Hillary Clinton is in suburban Washington today to seek the backing of labor unions at the AFL-CIO’s executive council meeting. An easy get for the Democratic frontrunner, right? Maybe not. Union chieftains, some already leery of Clinton’s Wall Street ties, face the fact that her rival Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to wow the party base and has strong appeal among workers. Hillary gets an hour to address the union bosses who, represent 12.5 million workers, as did Sanders Wednesday. Then leaders will debate their endorsement privately, with a two-thirds majority needed to carry the day.
Berning down the house – Fox News: “The Vermont independent’s campaign says more than 100,000 people signed up to attend one of 3,500 gatherings across the country. After the event he told the media “we never dreamed this campaign would move as quickly as it has and in fact part of the problem we are having is the campaign is moving much faster than our political infrastructure.”
[Bernie Sanders has three Washington events today including a Q&A session with the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.]
Banking on her – Fox News: “Donations to the Clinton Foundation by Swiss bank UBS increased tenfold after Hillary Clinton intervened to settle a dispute with the IRS early in her tenure as secretary of state… According to the Wall Street Journal, total donations by UBS to the foundation grew from less than $60,000 at the end of 2008 to approximately $600,000 by the end of 2014. The Journal reports that the bank also lent $32 million through entrepreneurship and inner-city loan programs it launched in association with the foundation, while paying former President Bill Clinton $1.5 million to participate in a series of corporate question-and-answer sessions with UBS Chief Executive Bob McCann.”
Hillary handler turns in some emails – Politico: “Long-time Hillary Clinton spokesman Philippe Reines handed the State Department 20 boxes of work-related emails taken in part from a personal email account, State officials said Wednesday, calling into question the extent to which top aides to the former secretary of state also engaged in controversial email practices. State Department top document official John Hackett, who heads Freedom of Information Act requests for the agency, told a federal judge in a court hearing…Reines sent over the document boxes with a cover letter, suggesting they contained a hodgepodge of work related items also mixed with personal messages.”
The Judge’s Ruling: Getaway plan gone awry – Senior Judicial Analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano brings down his gavel on Hillary Clinton’s claim she did not send or receive classified data using her personal email account to task. “Why did she lie about all this? Because she thinks she can get away with it.”
WITH YOUR SECOND CUP OF COFFEE…
Unlike other relics of past times, language does not leave a fossil or trace of existence. It cannot be analyzed and studied, and as a result is often times forgotten. Time tells the story of a 1930s linguist on a quest to document languages of Native American tribes in Louisiana. The Chitimacha fascinated researchers since only two native speakers, Benjamin Paul and Delphine Ducloux, revitalized the language. Upon their death, the tribe made it a mission to teach the language and spread it throughout their tribe. Today, the Chitimacha language is taught and spoken in school so children can all be fluent in their ancient tongue.
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Real Clear Politics Averages
Obama Job Approval: Approve – 45.8 percent//Disapprove – 49.9 percent
Directions of Country: Right Direction – 29.7 percent//Wrong Track – 61.3 percent
WALKER RAIDS JEB’S HOME TURF
Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wisc., tried his blue-collar pitch with some blue bloods Wednesday with fundraisers in the heart of Bush land. Walker attended fundraisers in Greenwich, Conn., anticipating a $100,000 haul for his efforts. He was well received by local party officials. Jim Campbell, Greenwich’s GOP chairman said, “Elections are always about tomorrow and I think Scott Walker best represents the future of the Republican Party and our country.” Today, Walker heads to Park Avenue for another fundraiser.
Rubio readies delegate strategy for long fight – David Drucker takes a look at Rubio’s delegate strategy to mount a late-game comeback: “The Florida senator’s growing empire of state campaign chairmen and designated grassroots supporters stretches from Maine to Alaska, and is populated in between with volunteer teams in Connecticut, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont and Wyoming. Victory in those states could win Rubio roughly 300 delegates of the approximately 1,200 he needs to be crowned the GOP presidential nominee next July.”
[e.g. – Star Tribune: “Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson endorsed Marco Rubio for president on Wednesday and will be Minnesota state chairman for the Florida senator’s presidential campaign.”]
Cruz stands by Obama terror charge – Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is not backing down from his claim that the Iran nuclear deal will make President Obama a funder of terrorism. aid that the Iran deal is essentially financing terrorism.
Rand looks to explain puny N.H. polls – Boston Globe: “During an afternoon interview in the Warren gazebo, Paul chalked up his sliding poll position to the large GOP field. Sixteen Republicans have announced they will seek the White House in 2016. ‘Obviously, everybody’s numbers come down when you divide it many different ways, but we have consistently been in the top tier here in New Hampshire,’ he said. ‘We have a great campaign organization, and we are going to do everything we can do win.’”
Carson backs term limits – In a tweet out this morning, Ben Carson signed a large petition saying he supports term limits for members of Congress. The tweet reads, “I pledge to support a #TermLimits Amendment to U.S. Constitution. No more career politicians in Congress. #BC2DC16.” The tweet also included photos of Carson with his pledge outside the Capitol in Washington, D.C.
“…the relationship, one of the most sacred relationships that exist, that between a mother and a developing child has been distorted to the point we have many women believe that that’s an inconvenience for them, and that that child is their enemy and that child can be destroyed. And that anybody who doesn’t agree with that is engaged in a war on women.” — Ben Carsonon “Special Report with Bret Baier.” Watch here.
Huck says labor not the enemy – NYT: “[Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Wisc.], the conservative former governor of Arkansas turned presidential candidate, extended a hand to an unlikely audience on Wednesday: the leaders of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., the umbrella organization of the labor movement. ‘I don’t think that it’s fair to think of labor unions as the enemy of the Republican Party — I don’t see them as the enemy…I see them as millions of American workers who want good jobs for their families.’”
Sure. Why not? – USA Today: “Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore is joining an already large Republican presidential field, filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday to make his candidacy official.”
TAKE FIVE: KEYSTONE STATE ROCK SOLID
For a third straight week, Pennsylvania tops the list of most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Fox News First readers who voted in our Take Five challenge to choose the five GOP-held seats most vulnerable to a Democratic flip are stuck on the Quaker State. Remember, Democrats need to turn at least five seats from red to blue to regain control of the Senate. Midwest neighbors Wisconsin and Illinois battled it out for the second spot landing in a tie, while Ohio and Florida round out your top five picks.
1) Pennsylvania 2) (tie) Wisconsin and Illinois 4) Ohio 5) Florida
Yinz need to check this out – Salena Zito, political guru for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, disagrees with the crowd. On “Power Play with Chris Stirewalt” Zito argues that Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., is the most vulnerable senator this cycle, not her home state’s Pat Toomey. WATCH HERE, N’AT.
Readers write – “[Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill.] is the crispest piece of toast of all Republican incumbents. In a presidential year, the top of the ticket’s coat tails are long and it’s inconceivable that Hillary Clinton will not crush the Republican nominee in Illinois, the bluest of states…Then, too, Kirk’s opponent will be Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth – a war veteran (and new mother) who lost both her legs in battle.” – Bob Foys
So what do you say? We’ll track your votes and comment and share them here each and every Thursday.
SO, ABOUT SITUATIONAL ETHICS, HONEY…
The Indy Channel: “A father pulled over for speeding was put at the mercy of his daughter for whether he was going to receive a ticket or not, thanks to a generous Indiana State Police Trooper. Trooper Darrick Scott made passenger Ashley Ellrich a state trooper for five minutes after a traffic stop on I-65 Saturday. Scott gave Ellrich the choice of whether to issue her father, the driver, a warning or a speeding ticket. And Ellrich was on the trooper’s side; she said ticket. Fortunately for her father, the officer was feeling generous enough to not only make his daughter a temporary trooper, but to also only issue a warning.”
Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Want FOX News First in your inbox every day? Sign up here.
Chris Stirewalt joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in July of 2010 and serves as digital politics editor based in Washington, D.C. Additionally, he authors the daily “Fox News First” political news note and hosts “Power Play,” a feature video series, on FoxNews.com. Stirewalt makes frequent appearances on the network, including “The Kelly File,” “Special Report with Bret Baier,” and “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.” He also provides expert political analysis for Fox News coverage of state, congressional and presidential elections.