Without question, President Obama’s second term will ultimately be defined on how he rallies the American people to protect our national security interests, both here at home and overseas. The rise of ISIS and other crises in the Middle East, have rightfully demanded the president’s attention and political leadership that by most accounts has fallen by the wayside.
While diplomatic and security concerns must always take priority, there are other international economic issues that will have a direct and long-lasting impact on millions of Americans. We are currently negotiating two massive trade agreements with the Asia-Pacific region and the European Union, which have the potential to expand the global economy, providing jobs for American workers and new customers for American businesses. But we must also deal on a daily basis with countries like India and China who routinely flout their trade obligations to the detriment of American investment, innovation, and opportunities.
It’s a lot for one president to handle, especially when factoring domestic economic and political issues that have contributed to President Obama’s popularity being at its lowest point in his two terms. For a soon-to-be lame duck commander-in-chief, it’s time to start thinking about the legacy question. Beyond political infighting and a health care law that remains a work in progress at best, how does President Obama want to be remembered five or ten years from now, and what is he going to do to shape that legacy between now and January 2017?
For better or worse, the president “owns” the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare. But apart from his historic election six years ago, there’s not much more that Mr. Obama can stake a claim to as far as signature accomplishments. After November, Obama heads into the lame-duck phase of his presidency, and if the GOP somehow wins control of the Senate, he will have to find a way to work with or around Congress to make progress on his agenda.
Granted, there’s not much the president can control when it comes to world events or a hostile Congress. Fortunately, there is some low-hanging fruit that’s ready to be picked on issues with broad Congressional support. At the beginning of his second term, Mr. Obama announced a renewed emphasis on expanding U.S. trading partnerships and finalizing the agreements that the U.S. is currently negotiating. One of those free trade agreements is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), between the U.S. and 11 other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Canada and Japan. But there are significant barriers that remain before the deal can be finalized, including lack of access to the Japanese market for U.S. agricultural products and automobiles, as well as disputes over intellectual property rights for pharmaceuticals.
Trade deals like TPP and its European counterpart, the TTIP, present opportunities, but they are contingent upon the U.S. securing the best possible outcome, and for that to happen Mr. Obama needs to play a much stronger leadership role. While TPP could certainly be a feather in the president’s cap, a weak deal would set our economy back for years to come.
Whether or not he would like to admit it, Mr. Obama’s inability to finalize these deals will inevitably tarnish his legacy. Immediately after this year’s mid-term elections, he must capitalize on the lame duck Congress and demand Trade Promotion Authority, or “fast-track” powers so that he can complete pending trade agreements and win a major victory for his Administration.
The TPP, in particular, has vast upside potential for the American economy, unlocking new markets that our industries have been shut out of for a long time. Provided market access, intellectual property and regulatory transparency issues are resolved in favor of the U.S., the TPP will set a new standard for how trade agreements are approached in the future and provide a solution for the ineptitude and impotence of the World Trade Organization. In short, while a strong TPP would be a capstone for the president’s legacy, a weak agreement on a deal of this magnitude will severely hamstring the next president, setting a dangerous precedent by leaving the U.S. vulnerable to the whims of other countries that refuse to play by the rules.
Ultimately, whether or not Mr. Obama succeeds or fails on TPP will come down to whether he has the political capital and the political will to secure the strongest possible deal and work with both parties in Congress on ratification. Given the dismal outlook for many of his priorities over the next two years, a renewed commitment to America’s trade agenda may be one of the few winnable pieces that can contribute to his final legacy. All politics aside, the clock is ticking.
