With Mitt Romney now holding more than twice the delegates of any of his primary opponents – having picked up 39 new delegates this weekend with his wins in the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands and Wyoming this weekend – it is becoming increasingly clear that barring some extraordinary turn of events, the ultimate GOP nominee will be Romney.
Meanwhile, there is a clear sense within the Republican primary electorate that Romney is the most electable of the four candidates vying for the GOP nomination — warts and all.
That being said, Romney’s electoral vulnerabilities vis-à-vis President Obama are becoming increasingly clear.
While the President has managed to drive his approval and favorability ratings up to around 50% — a decided improvement over where he has been the last few months – Romney’s negative ratings have gone up, and gone up substantially.
Indeed, the number of Americans who see Romney favorably is lower than it was for any leading presidential candidate at about this point – placing him in an extremely challenging position should he ultimately secure the nomination.
Meanwhile, for the first time, more than half of Americans said they expect Barack Obama to be re-elected in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
All of this is not to say that Romney cannot win in the general election.
Romney is effectively tied with the President in recent polling — trailing by a mere 2.2 points in today’s Real Clear Politics average.
And with economic problems still on the horizon, international conflict with Iran and other nations increasingly possible, President Obama is by no means out of the woods.
Thus, despite Romney’s vulnerabilities, it would be a profound a mistake to think that this election is anything other than a tossup.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political strategist, Fox News contributor, and author of several books including the forthcoming “Hopelessly Divided: The New Crisis in American Politics and What It Means for 2012 and Beyond” (Rowman and Littlefield). Follow Doug on Twitter @DouglasESchoen.
