Ted Cruz is running for President of the United States.
The announcement of the first candidate is no great shock. Cruz has been positioning himself for some time, and is a consistently outspoken voice on the conservative cause du jour.
While many are quick to write Cruz off in the GOP primary, they do so at their own risk. Granted, Cruz is no coalition builder. He has few allies in the Senate, and it’s been widely reported that even other conservative senators have had more than their fill of the gentleman from Texas. But by launching his campaign at the Jerry Falwell-founded Liberty University, Cruz shows that he is craftier than he lets on.
Today’s big tent Republican party has four corners. There are the more moderate business conservatives who championed Mitt Romney. There are the libertarians, who until recently seemed sure to gather behind Rand Paul. There are the evangelicals, the “religious right,” who four years ago favored Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee four years before that. And there is, of course, the Tea Party.
As no one can decide on who or what the Tea Party is, it is hard to label any candidate a Tea Party favorite. And yet, according to most everyone, a Tea Party favorite is exactly what Ted Cruz is. And by announcing at Liberty University, Cruz seems intent on becoming a favorite of the religious right, too. A candidate who wields the power of both the Tea Party and the religious right is a force to be reckoned with.
We can expect more announcements in the coming weeks, notably from Rand Paul and even maybe GOP establishment favorite Jeb Bush. It follows that the Republican primary is shaping up to get very messy. Declared and undeclared candidates are fighting for top staff and donors, taking pot shots at one another on cable news, and vying for the soul of the party.
The fact that it will be a competitive primary for the Republicans is a double-edged sword. This is true for a number of reasons. Any time you have a competitive primary, it emphasizes the divisions within the party. This battle will be contentious, notwithstanding the effort to have a nominee as early as possible. And given that the Democrats only have one candidate gaining any traction in Hillary Clinton, the Democrats then have a demonstrable advantage.
It’s a demonstrable advantage for a couple of reasons. Hillary is clearly not ready for prime time. She doesn’t have a strategy or message that she has articulated. That said, she remains in the lead, a lead she is unlikely to relinquish unless and until the Republicans coalesce behind a candidate or the former secretary of state makes an unforced error that substantially weakens her poll numbers – something that has yet to happen to date.
