On March 7, the White House was battling the departure of Gary Cohn, the Dow dropping 300 points, and Stormy Daniels filing her lawsuit against the president.
Throughout his presidency, Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been weak at best. Regardless of the tax cuts, record economic growth, and meetings with North Korea, nearly every positive development in the administration has been overshadowed in the media by something that has an equally negative impact on the President.
In this Sept. 11, 2018, photo, President Donald Trump (left) talks about Hurricane Florence during a briefing in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington as FEMA Administrator Brock Long listens at right. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Indeed, the Trump administration has been plagued by a number of unforced errors, including child separations at the border, the hurricane fallout in Puerto Rico, and federal investigations into Trump’s closest advisers.
With Hurricane Florence hitting the East Coast just last week, millions of Americans will be closely watching the president’s response. In attempting to understand how this will affect the President in the long run, it is important to understand the impact that other major events have had on the President’s approval rating, and ultimately, the willingness for Americans to want to see change in Washington.
Analyzing approval data from the past 21 months of the Trump presidency provides us with crucial insight into what is soon to come.
As a matter of fact, the President’s approval rating has closely followed a similar pattern to the the generic ballot question nationwide.
In plain terms, when more people disapprove of President Trump, the down-ticket effect increases and more people would rather vote Democrat than Republican.
President Trump’s highest approval rating this year, according to the Real Clear average, was on June 4, with 44.6% of the country approving of Trump at that time. The Trump administration was taking credit for the recently released job report, illustrating an 18-year-low unemployment rate, and 223,000 jobs created. Indeed, the Real Clear average for the Generic Congressional Vote narrowed to a mere 3.2-point lead for the Democrats that week.
In contrast, President Trump’s lowest approval rating, according to the RealClearPolitics average, came on December 13, 2017, when only 37% of the country approved of the job Trump was doing. By the end of the month, the Real Clear average for the Generic Congressional Vote expanded to a 13-point Democratic lead.
These figures were measured in the midst of new, in-depth reports about the damage from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. With the realization that conditions were much worse than previously reported, many turned to Trump and his administration for answers–which they were largely unable to provide.
Similarly, President Trump’s approval rating reached a period low in the aftermath of the Charlottesville Unite the Right Rally. His refusal to condemn hate and take a stand following the incident resulted in the noticeable decline in his approval.
Ultimately, an inability to manage the largest challenges that he and his campaign have faced has revealed the limits of the Trump administration.
With the Mueller investigation, Manafort developments, Cohen developments, and the potential damages from Hurricane Florence front and center, challenges lie ahead for President Trump and the Republicans.
Ultimately, however, what this analysis reveals is that the changes in attitudes towards President Trump are not coming from character attacks alone, but from real world developments, as well as actual policy measures and positions on issues.
Thus, for the Democrats to win in November, they must emphasize key platform and policy differences from those policies implemented by the President and Republican leadership over the past two years.
With general election campaigns starting to form, Democrats on the trail are struggling with the vexed issue of how they should respond to President Trump.
History tells us that Republicans should be wary, given that, in the past three midterm elections, in 2006, 2010 and 2014, the president’s party has lost six Senate seats in total.
As it stands now, the generic ballot has Democrats up by almost 10 points, and it appears that this gap is widening in their favor. This indicates that not only are Democrats vying to take back control of the House, but potentially are looking to shift the tide in governorships, and maybe even the Senate.
Even in Texas, where a Democrat has not been elected to a Senate seat since 1988, we are witnessing an unusually contentious Senate race.
“Ted’s got a competitive race by all indications," said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, referring to Republican incumbent Ted Cruz’s race against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke.
However, Democrats in no way should take anything or any race for granted.
For Democrats to successfully capitalize on their momentum through November, they must formulate a path to victory that, instead of being focused on attacking President Trump or relitigating controversies that have already been publicly litigated, presents an effective set of alternative policies, which are contrasted with the unstable and reckless policies that Republicans have put forth.
Ultimately, if Democrats can effectively communicate a compelling platform to a broad swath of the electorate this fall, the party will enjoy an unprecedented and immense amount of electoral success.
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Last week, President Trump’s approval rating dropped to its lowest level since March 7, with the most recent RealClearPolitics average indicating a 40.8% job approval.
On March 7, the White House was battling the departure of Gary Cohn, the Dow dropping 300 points, and Stormy Daniels filing her lawsuit against the president.
Throughout his presidency, Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been weak at best. Regardless of the tax cuts, record economic growth, and meetings with North Korea, nearly every positive development in the administration has been overshadowed in the media by something that has an equally negative impact on the President.
In this Sept. 11, 2018, photo, President Donald Trump (left) talks about Hurricane Florence during a briefing in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington as FEMA Administrator Brock Long listens at right. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Indeed, the Trump administration has been plagued by a number of unforced errors, including child separations at the border, the hurricane fallout in Puerto Rico, and federal investigations into Trump’s closest advisers.
With Hurricane Florence hitting the East Coast just last week, millions of Americans will be closely watching the president’s response. In attempting to understand how this will affect the President in the long run, it is important to understand the impact that other major events have had on the President’s approval rating, and ultimately, the willingness for Americans to want to see change in Washington.
Analyzing approval data from the past 21 months of the Trump presidency provides us with crucial insight into what is soon to come.
As a matter of fact, the President’s approval rating has closely followed a similar pattern to the the generic ballot question nationwide.
In plain terms, when more people disapprove of President Trump, the down-ticket effect increases and more people would rather vote Democrat than Republican.
President Trump’s highest approval rating this year, according to the Real Clear average, was on June 4, with 44.6% of the country approving of Trump at that time. The Trump administration was taking credit for the recently released job report, illustrating an 18-year-low unemployment rate, and 223,000 jobs created. Indeed, the Real Clear average for the Generic Congressional Vote narrowed to a mere 3.2-point lead for the Democrats that week.
In contrast, President Trump’s lowest approval rating, according to the RealClearPolitics average, came on December 13, 2017, when only 37% of the country approved of the job Trump was doing. By the end of the month, the Real Clear average for the Generic Congressional Vote expanded to a 13-point Democratic lead.
These figures were measured in the midst of new, in-depth reports about the damage from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. With the realization that conditions were much worse than previously reported, many turned to Trump and his administration for answers–which they were largely unable to provide.
Similarly, President Trump’s approval rating reached a period low in the aftermath of the Charlottesville Unite the Right Rally. His refusal to condemn hate and take a stand following the incident resulted in the noticeable decline in his approval.
Ultimately, an inability to manage the largest challenges that he and his campaign have faced has revealed the limits of the Trump administration.
With the Mueller investigation, Manafort developments, Cohen developments, and the potential damages from Hurricane Florence front and center, challenges lie ahead for President Trump and the Republicans.
Ultimately, however, what this analysis reveals is that the changes in attitudes towards President Trump are not coming from character attacks alone, but from real world developments, as well as actual policy measures and positions on issues.
Thus, for the Democrats to win in November, they must emphasize key platform and policy differences from those policies implemented by the President and Republican leadership over the past two years.
With general election campaigns starting to form, Democrats on the trail are struggling with the vexed issue of how they should respond to President Trump.
History tells us that Republicans should be wary, given that, in the past three midterm elections, in 2006, 2010 and 2014, the president’s party has lost six Senate seats in total.
As it stands now, the generic ballot has Democrats up by almost 10 points, and it appears that this gap is widening in their favor. This indicates that not only are Democrats vying to take back control of the House, but potentially are looking to shift the tide in governorships, and maybe even the Senate.
Even in Texas, where a Democrat has not been elected to a Senate seat since 1988, we are witnessing an unusually contentious Senate race.
“Ted’s got a competitive race by all indications,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, referring to Republican incumbent Ted Cruz’s race against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke.
However, Democrats in no way should take anything or any race for granted.
For Democrats to successfully capitalize on their momentum through November, they must formulate a path to victory that, instead of being focused on attacking President Trump or relitigating controversies that have already been publicly litigated, presents an effective set of alternative policies, which are contrasted with the unstable and reckless policies that Republicans have put forth.
Ultimately, if Democrats can effectively communicate a compelling platform to a broad swath of the electorate this fall, the party will enjoy an unprecedented and immense amount of electoral success.
